Set this page to:
Go to FERI in:
T +352 270448-0
F +352 270448-729
info@feri.lu
18, Boulevard de la Foire
L-1528
Luxembourg
CONTACT
CONTACT
Login
Languages
The „China Shock 2.0“ is putting German and European companies under increasing pressure. But while the debate is still dominated by electric cars, batteries, and solar technology, the next—and potentially decisive—phase of competition has long since begun: China is consistently pushing its own technological paths, standards, and value-chain networks. The FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, in collaboration with the renowned China strategy consultancy Sinolytics GmbH, is analyzing the far-reaching global consequences this „third wave“ will have, particularly for Europe and Germany.
The latest foreign trade figures underscore the problem: China’s trade surplus already totaled approximately $938 billion in the first nine months of 2026. Exports of semiconductors and automobiles grew particularly strongly. A pronounced imbalance is also evident in trade with Germany and the EU. This trend illustrates that China’s industrial and technological strength is increasingly making its mark on global markets—and massively increasing competitive pressure on European companies.
For decades, China’s economic rise was based on industrial scaling and catching up technologically. Today, the logic of competition is fundamentally changing: China is no longer merely competing within existing markets but is evolving into an active shaper of its own technological paths. Through targeted industrial policy support, state-directed capital, and new applications for artificial intelligence, robotics, drones, and quantum technology, the People’s Republic is explicitly focusing on groundbreaking future technologies. In doing so, it is shaping global standards, establishing novel platforms, and creating comprehensive value-added networks.
The study identifies three waves of China’s rise:
„The third wave marks the transition from catching up technologically to actively shaping our own, parallel technology paths.“ – Björn Conrad, CEO of Sinolytics GmbH
Competition in future key markets is shifting from products to entire technology systems. This makes one thing clear: China’s „third wave“ is fundamentally changing the strategic landscape for companies and investors. At the same time, geopolitical tensions, trade frictions, and export controls are exacerbating the fragmentation of the global economy and driving the emergence of competing technology spheres.
For companies, this means reassessing their strategic positioning: It is becoming increasingly critical which technology ecosystems, standards, and value-creation networks they are integrated into.
„For the first time we face a strategic competitor in China that is both determined to become the global leader in the industries of the future and has the means and resources to do so if we are not on our game.“ – Gina Raimondo, U.S. Secretary of Commerce, and Lloyd Austin, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Biden Administration, 2022
This new momentum is particularly evident in future-oriented fields such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and robotics. China is investing heavily in key technologies, actively promoting their application, and creating opportunities for industrial scaling. The goal is not only technological self-sufficiency but also the global dissemination of Chinese technologies and standards. Above all, the combination of AI and robotics could become a decisive driver of productivity.
„Artificial intelligence combined with manufacturing is a necessity, not an option.“ — Li Lecheng, Chinese Minister of Industry, 2026
Chinese technologies are becoming more cost-effective and powerful in an increasing number of sectors and are gaining importance in global value chains. For Germany and Europe, this development raises existential questions regarding global competitiveness, technological sovereignty, the security of global supply and value chains, and future-proof business models.
In the future, companies will have to weigh economic advantages against geopolitical risks. For investors, the question arises as to which industries and business models will benefit from new technology ecosystems and where existing competitive advantages might come under pressure.
A key conclusion of the study is:
In the future, global competition will no longer hinge on individual products, but on the development and mastery of entire technology ecosystems.
Interested? A short version of the German study Chinas „3. Welle“: Globale Disruption bei KI, Robotik und Zukunftstechnologien is available in German in our download section on this page. It provides in-depth insight into the next phase of global competition in technology and power and shows why the critical challenges of the coming years extend far beyond traditional industrial policy.