Big picture forecasts fulfilled faster than expected – Trump's attacks on democratic structures exacerbate risks to the global financial system

It remains to be seen to what extent Kevin Warsh, the new head of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) nominated by US President Donald Trump, actually stands for an independent monetary policy. One thing is certain, however: with regard to the stability of the global financial system, the US under Trump is currently a significant risk factor. The massive expansion of government debt, exacerbated by Trump's tax breaks, has recently resulted in a sharp rise in US interest expenditure. "The US already has to spend more than $3 billion every day just to service its interest payments – and this figure is rising rapidly. In 2025, interest costs will be around $1.3 trillion, about 30 percent higher than defense spending – a situation that is completely unsustainable in the long term," explains Dr. Heinz-Werner Rapp, founder and director of the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute. This imbalance explains why Trump is so determined to bring the Fed under his control: “Trump wants to force interest rates down in order to reduce government interest costs and stimulate the economy at the same time.” Ultimately, according to the FERI Cognitive Finance Institute, this objective increases the risks for the US dollar and the global financial system.

The Bad Homburg think tank had already clearly predicted these intentions of the US president – as well as numerous other “surprises” – in its future analysis “Big Picture: 2025,” published in January 2025. According to Rapp, this study clearly showed that the cognitive finance methodology, in which data from six different areas is linked to form a holistic “big picture,” enables unusually accurate forecasts and future scenarios. 

The USA as a radical game changer 

The comprehensive Big Picture analysis also anticipated a second development: “Even before Donald Trump's second presidency, it was clear that parts of the US were becoming increasingly radicalized and shaking off liberal values,” says Rapp. The resurgence of a US superpower policy that was increasingly taking on neo-imperial traits was also clearly visible as early as 2024: “Most developments are following exactly the ‘Project 2025’ that was developed in advance as a political script for ‘Trump 2.0,’” explains Rapp. Trump's aversion to Europe and his inclination to leave NATO and other multilateral organizations have also been known for a long time and should come as no surprise to anyone. “Under Trump 2.0, the US is acting as a radical game changer and creating its own world order: maximum freedom of action for America, while everyone else gets the bill – even close partners and allies,” Rapp explains. This means that a central prediction of the “big picture” has been completely fulfilled – in some respects even faster and more radically than expected. 

Digital power concentration and the new tech oligarchy

Another important development concerns the rise in power and increasing political influence of the “tech titans” in the US. “The rise of an elitist tech oligarchy in the US was a central thesis of our ‘Big Picture: 2025’,” said Rapp. The presumptuous and destructive interventions of Elon Musk and his DOGE authority in the heart of US politics have clearly confirmed this prediction. The influence of billionaire tech barons in the US is becoming increasingly apparent, most recently as the driving force behind Trump's plans to take over Greenland. “The tech oligarchs, with their digital platforms and online media, are also an important factor in Donald Trump's attempt to thwart traditional media in the US,” says Rapp. This is precisely where the toxic combination of private big capital and state power, which former President Joe Biden warned about emphatically in his farewell speech, manifests itself. 

Europe in the geopolitical vise 

“The last twelve months have been a difficult time for Europe, full of painful experiences – triggered by the radical U-turn of the US,” said Rapp. Since then, recklessness and neo-imperial superpower politics have dominated the political environment. The Trump administration's attack on Denmark and other NATO partners over Greenland has ruthlessly exposed this changed worldview. Europe no longer has a box seat in the new concert of great powers and must stand up for itself. Rapp warns: “With Russia, China, and now the US openly violating European security interests, there is a threat of dangerous triangulation – Europe is increasingly caught in a geopolitical vice.” This development, which hardly anyone in Europe would have expected 12 months ago, was also accurately predicted by the FERI Institute in “Big Picture: 2025.” 

The corresponding analysis is available in German for download on this page.